Eight Days Out: Healey Leads Comfortably, but Three Ballot Questions Are Coin Flips

With Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, the two most recent public polls agree on the top of the Massachusetts ballot and disagree, or simply cannot tell, on several of the nine statewide questions underneath it. Deadlines are also arriving fast: applications for a mail ballot must reach local election offices by 5 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 27, and in-person early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30.

The governor’s race: a wide, stable gap

Gov. Maura Healey enters the final week with a lead that two independent surveys put above 20 points. The UMass Amherst Poll, conducted by YouGov from Oct. 5 to 12 among 800 registered voters, found Healey at 57 percent, Republican Mike Minogue at 32 percent and independent Andrea James at 6 percent, with a margin of error of 4.2 points. Healey’s job approval in that survey stood at 58 percent.

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of 500 registered voters, taken Oct. 14 to 18 with a 4.4-point margin of error, showed a similar picture in a two-way framing: Healey 59 percent, Minogue 36 percent.

UMass Poll director Tatishe Nteta said Healey’s “broad-based support puts her in a strong position” heading into November. The UMass survey also found Healey ahead of Minogue on every issue it tested, from abortion to crime, and found that more than eight in 10 respondents viewed Minogue and President Trump as similar on the issues asked about.

Down the ballot, the UMass survey showed Democratic incumbents with comfortable leads among likely voters, including Sen. Ed Markey over Republican John Deaton, 54 percent to 28 percent.

The questions: three near-ties

The more interesting story is further down the page. Massachusetts voters face nine statewide ballot questions this year, and the Suffolk/Globe poll found three of them in statistical dead heats:

• Question 3 (single all-party primary): would replace separate party primaries for state offices with one primary in which the top two finishers advance regardless of party. Suffolk: 46 percent yes, 41 percent no.
• Question 5 (state tax revenue limit): would tighten the formula behind the state’s tax revenue cap and rebate law. Suffolk: 40 percent yes, 38 percent no, with 20 percent undecided.
• Question 7 (small-lot single-family homes): would require cities and towns to allow single-family homes on smaller lots that meet frontage and water-and-sewer conditions. Suffolk: 41.2 percent yes, 40.6 percent no, a gap of three respondents.

The UMass poll, taken a week earlier and with a different sample, showed larger “yes” leads on all three: 49-39 on Question 3, 58-20 on Question 5 and 65-21 on Question 7. The difference between the two surveys is itself a signal that opinion on these measures is soft and that many voters are deciding late.

Suffolk’s David Paleologos offered a rule of thumb for reading those numbers: undecided voters “tend to break on the side of keeping things the way they are,” which typically means a late lift for “no.”

The rest of the ballot at a glance

Several other questions showed lopsided margins in the UMass survey. Question 1, which would extend the public records law to the Legislature and the governor’s office, drew 84 percent support. Question 4, Election Day voter registration, was at 67 percent yes. Question 9, a referendum on the state’s 2024 firearms law in which “yes” keeps the law, was at 70 percent yes. Question 8, which would repeal retail recreational marijuana sales, was losing 61 percent to 31 percent. Question 2, collective bargaining for public defender staff, led 53-19 with many undecided, and Question 6, a conservation fund built from existing sales-tax revenue, led 70-19 in UMass’s survey but only 49-39 in Suffolk’s.

The Boston Made Take

Boston Made reads the final week this way: the governor’s race is unlikely to produce a surprise, so the real stakes for Boston-area residents sit in the questions. Two of the three near-ties carry long-term consequences for the region’s economy. Question 7 goes straight at the housing supply problem that drives up rents and prices across Greater Boston, and Question 5 would change how much revenue the state can keep in strong years, which shapes everything from transit funding to tax rebates. Question 3 would rewrite how candidates reach the November ballot in a state where many legislative seats are effectively decided in Democratic primaries.

When polls conflict this much and undecided shares run as high as 20 percent, turnout and ballot fatigue matter. Voters who skip the bottom of a long ballot effectively let others decide. The healthiest outcome for any of these measures is a result decided by people who read the question, not by those who left it blank.

What it means for you

• Want to vote by mail? Your application must reach your local election office by 5 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 27. After that, plan to vote in person.
• Early voting: in-person early voting runs through Friday, Oct. 30. Hours vary by community, and many towns have limited Friday hours, so check your city or town clerk’s schedule.
• Election Day: polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Nov. 3; if you are in line by 8 p.m., you can vote.
• Read before you go: the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s Information for Voters guide includes the official ballot language and summaries for all nine questions.
• Already mailed a ballot? State guidance suggests using a drop box or returning it in person if it is not already in the mail within a week of Election Day.